Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Abenomics

Abenomics refers to the economic policies advocated by Shinzล Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan(2013)

Abenomics is a set of policy measures meant to resolve Japan's macroeconomic problems. It consists of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and economic growth strategies to encourage private investment. Specific policies include inflation targeting at a 2% annual rate, correction of the excessive yen appreciation, setting negative interest rates, radical quantitative easing, expansion of public investment etc

 

How GDP is calculated

GDP of a country is defined as the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time (usually a calendar year). It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production (the intermediate stages) of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.

The most common approach to measuring and understanding GDP is the expenditure method: GDP = consumption + investment + (government spending) + (exports – imports), or, GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)

 

How GNP is calculated

There are various ways of calculating GNP numbers. The expenditure approach determines aggregate demand, or Gross National Expenditure, by summing consumption, investment, government expenditure and net exports. The income approach and the closely related output approach sum wages, rents, [[interest, profits, non income charges, and net foreign factor income earned.

 

The three methods yield the same result because total expenditures on goods and services (GNE) is equal to the value of goods and services produced (GNP) which is equal to the total income paid to the factors that produced the goods and services (GNI)

Expenditure Approach to calculating GNP:GNP = GDP + NR (Net income from assets abroad (Net Income Receipts))

 

 

Characteristics of a Recession vs. Depression

The attributes of a recession include declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions are the result of falling demand and may be associated with falling prices (deflation), or sharply rising prices (inflation) or a combination of rising prices and stagnant economic growth (stagflation).

A common rule of thumb for recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. The corresponding rule of thumb for a depression is a 10 percent decline in gross domestic product (GDP). Considered a rare but extreme form of recession, a depression is characterized by "unusual" increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, price deflation or hyperinflation, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile/erratic relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Generally periods labeled depressions are marked by a substantial and sustained shortfall of the ability to purchase goods relative to the amount that could be produced given current resources and technology (potential output).
A devastating breakdown of an economy (essentially, a severe depression, or hyperinflation, depending on the circumstances) is called economic collapse.

Real GDP

Real GDP is a macroeconomic measure of the value of output economy, adjusted for price changes. The adjustment transforms the nominal GDP into an index for quantity of total output.

Calculating nominal GDP

Nominal GDP = ∑ ptqt,  where p refers to price, q is quantity, and t indicates the year in question (usually the current year).
However, it can be misleading to do an apples-to-apples comparison of a GDP of $1 trillion in 2008 with a GDP of $200 billion in 1990. This is because of inflation. The value of one dollar in 1990 was far greater than the value of a dollar in 2008. In other words, prices in 1990 were different from prices in 2008. So if you want to really compare economic output (quantities), you can calculate GDP by using prices from a base year.

When you adjust nominal GDP for price changes (inflation or deflation), you get what is known as the Real GDP.

Calculating real GDP

When you adjust nominal GDP for price changes (inflation or deflation), you get what is known as the Real GDP. It can be calculated using the following formula:
Real GDP = ∑ pbqt, where b denotes the base year.

To effectively compare the real GDP of two years, one can construct an index using a base year. A base year is usually an arbitrary figure (here, a particular year) which is used as a yardstick for comparison of the GDP numbers.

When should we use real GDP numbers and when is nominal GDP used?

One uses the nominal GDP figures to determine the total value of the products and services manufactured in a country during a particular year. However, when one wants to compare GDP in one year with past years to study trends in economic growth, real GDP is used.

By definition (since real GDP is calculated using prices of a given "base year"), real GDP has no meaning by itself unless it is compared to GDP of a different year.

If a set of real GDPs from various years are calculated, each calculation uses the quantities from its own year, but all use the prices from the same base year. The differences in those real GDPs will, therefore, reflect merely differences in volume.

An index called the GDP deflator can be obtained by dividing, for each year, the nominal GDP by the real GDP. It gives an indication of the overall level of inflation or deflation in the economy.

GDP deflator for year t = GDPt / Real GDPt

GDP deflator

An index called the GDP deflator can be obtained by dividing, for each year, the nominal GDP by the real GDP. It gives an indication of the overall level of inflation or deflation in the economy.

GDP deflator for year t = GDPt / Real GDPt

 

Comparison between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy
Principle:Manipulating the level of aggregate demand in the economy to achieve economic objectives of price stability, full employment, and economic growth.Manipulating the supply of money to influence outcomes like economic growth, inflation, exchange rates with other currencies and unemployment.

{iframe width="200" height="200" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/TvzsjOmWgKI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen}{/iframe}

Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy
Definition:Fiscal policy is the use of government expenditure and revenue collection to influence the economy.Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money, often targeting a rate of interest to attain a set of objectives oriented towards the growth and stability of the economy.
Policy Tools:Taxes; amount of government spendingInterest rates; reserve requirements; currency peg; discount window; quantitative easing; open market operations; signalling
Policy-maker:Government (e.g. U.S. Congress, Treasury Secretary)Central Bank (e.g. U.S. Federal Reserve)

Monetary policy

Monetary policy is controlled by the Central Bank. In the U.S., this is the Federal Reserve. The Fed chairman is appointed by the government and there is an oversight committee in Congress for the Fed. But the organization is largely independent and is free to take any measures to meet its dual mandate: stable prices and low unemployment.

Examples of monetary policy tools include:

Interest Rates: Interest rate is the cost of borrowing or, essentially, the price of money. By manipulating interest rates, the central bank can make it easier or harder to borrow money. When money is cheap, there is more borrowing and more economic activity. For example, businesses find that projects that are not viable if they have to borrow money at 5% are viable when the rate is only 2%. Lower rates also disincentivize saving and induce people to spend their money rather than save it because they get so little return on their savings.

Reserve requirement: Banks are required to hold a certain percentage (cash reserve ratio, or CRR) of their deposits in reserve in order to ensure that they always have enough cash to meet withdrawal requests of their depositors. Not all depositors are likely to withdraw their money simultaneously. So the CRR is usually around 10%, which means banks are free to lend the remaining 90%. By changing the CRR requirement for banks, the Fed can control the amount of lending in the economy, and therefore the money supply.

Currency peg: Weak economies can decide to peg their currency against a stronger currency. This tool is usually used in cases of runaway inflation when other means to control it are not working.

Open market operations: The Fed can create money out of thin air and inject it into the economy by buying government bonds (e.g. treasuries). This raises the level of government debt, increases the money supply and devalues the currency causing inflation. However, the resulting inflation supports asset prices such as real estate and stocks.

 

Procyclical fiscal policy

A procyclical fiscal policy piles on the spending and tax cuts on top of booms, but reduces spending and raises taxes in response to downturns. Budgetary profligacy during expansion; austerity in recessions. Procyclical fiscal policy is destabilising, because it worsens the dangers of overheating, inflation, and asset bubbles during the booms and exacerbates the losses in output and employment during the recessions. In other words, a procyclical fiscal policy magnifies the severity of the business cycle.

Comparison between FDI and FPI

FDI FPI
What is invested:Involves the transfer of non-financial assets e.g.technology and intellectual capital, in addition to financial assets.Only investment of financial assets.
Stands for:Foreign Direct InvestmentForeign Portfolio Investment
Volatility:Having smaller in net inflowsHaving larger net inflows
Management:Projects are efficiently managedProjects are less efficiently managed
Involvement - direct or indirect:Involved in management and ownership control; long-term interestNo active involvement in management. Investment instruments that are more easily traded, less permanent and do not represent a controlling stake in an enterprise.
Sell off:It is more difficult to sell off or pull out.It is fairly easy to sell securities and pull out because they are liquid.
Comes from:Tends to be undertaken by Multinational organisationsComes from more diverse sources e.g.a small company's pension fund or through mutual funds held by individuals; investment via equity instruments (stocks) or debt (bonds) of a foreign enterprise.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) in the home mortgage business. They have the exact same business model and they do the exact same thing; they buy mortgages on the secondary market, pool them, and then sell them as mortgage-backed securities to investors on the open market. Everything else regarding government guarantees, explicit guarantees, implicit guarantees, subsidies and direct government funding is exactly the same for Freddie Mac as it is for Fannie Mae.

The difference between Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is that Fannie Mae primarily buys mortgages issued by banks and Freddie Mac primarily buys mortgages issued by thrifts.

APR and Interest Rate

Annual Percentage RateInterest Rate
Definition:Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is an expression of the effective interest rate that the borrower will pay on a loan, taking into account one-time fees and standardizing the way the rate is expressed.Interest is a fee on borrowed capital. Interest rate is a "rent on money" to compensate the lender for foregoing other useful investments that could have been made with the loaned money.
Transaction costs:Transaction costs and fees are taken into account when calculating APR.Typically, interest rates do not include transaction costs.

Why APR is used?

Due to transactions costs and fees, the APR is always higher than the nominal interest rate. Therefore, APR represents the "true cost" to the borrower, and is a better measure of the cost of borrowing.

Another advantage of APR is that it allows the borrower to better compare the cost of borrowing from different lenders, since they may all have different fee structures. It is quite possible that a lender may charge a higher interest rate but a lower fees. This may be a better deal than a lender charging lower interest but high upfront transaction costs.

Since APR factors these costs in, the comparisons between lenders are fair and accurate.

 

Pitfalls of using APR

While in theory APR should make it easy for borrowers to compares loan offers from different lenders, in practice things are a little more complicated. This is because the in Lending Act requires lenders to include certain fees in their APR calculations, but some of these are optional to include. Different lenders calculate APR differently.

What's more, the closing date they assume also impacts APR calculation.

Annual Percentage Rate vs Annual Percentage Yield

APR (Annual Percentage Rate) and APY (Annual Percentage Yield) are both related to the effective interest rate in financial transactions.

When consumers borrow from a financial institution (for a loan or a mortgage), they pay interest. The term APR is used in such cases when the financial institution lends and the consumer borrows.

APY is an analogous term used when the consumer invests (for example in a time deposit such as a CD or a savings account), the consumer earns interest. The deposit gives an yield on the amount of money invested.

Comparison between APR and APY

Annual Percentage Rate Annual Percentage Yield
Definition:Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is an expression of the effective interest rate that the borrower will pay on a loan, taking into account one-time fees and standardizing the way the rate is expressed.Annual Percentage Yield (APY) expresses an annual rate of interest taking into account the effect of compounding, usually for deposit or investment products.
Transaction costs:Transaction costs and fees are taken into account when calculating APR.APY does not take transaction costs into account.